Are prediction markets legal in Brazil? Kalshi and Polymarket (2026)

This guide reflects Brazilian rules as of October 1, 2026, which are changing fast. It is general information, not legal advice.

Are prediction markets legal in Brazil?

No. As of October 1, 2026, Resolution 5,298/2026 of the National Monetary Council (Conselho Monetário Nacional, CMN), in force since May 4, 2026, bans offering and trading in Brazil event contracts on sports, online games and political, electoral, social, cultural or entertainment events, including contracts traded abroad. The government had Kalshi’s and Polymarket’s sites blocked in April 2026, and no prediction market is authorized for retail users.

Only contracts tied to economic or financial benchmarks, such as interest rates, inflation or exchange rates, fall outside the ban, under the oversight of the Securities and Exchange Commission of Brazil (Comissão de Valores Mobiliários, CVM). Separately, a 2024 decision of the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) made election betting an electoral offense, and Provisional Measure (Medida Provisória, MP) 1,394/2026 has banned fixed-odds betting nationwide since September 25, 2026.

What CMN Resolution 5,298/2026 says

The resolution, dated April 24, 2026, bans “a oferta e a negociação, no país” (the offer and trading in Brazil) of derivative contracts linked to real sports events, online-game events, or political, electoral, social, cultural or entertainment events, plus any other topic that, in the CVM’s judgment, isn’t an economic-financial benchmark (art. 3). Article 4 extends the ban to “ofertas em território nacional de derivativos negociados no exterior”: offers in Brazil of derivatives traded abroad.

As of October 1, 2026, the Central Bank of Brazil (Banco Central do Brasil, BCB) lists the resolution as in force; it doesn’t depend on the MP’s fate in Congress.

The April 2026 block of Kalshi, Polymarket and others

On April 24, 2026, at the request of the Ministry of Finance (Ministério da Fazenda), the National Telecommunications Agency (Agência Nacional de Telecomunicações, Anatel) blocked 27 prediction-market platforms, citing the CMN resolution. The government’s official list includes Kalshi and Polymarket; some reports put the total at 28. According to Agência Brasil, Finance Minister Dario Durigan said “os mercados de predição não são legais, não são regulares no Brasil” (prediction markets are not legal, not regular in Brazil). Asked by Folha de S.Paulo that day, neither Kalshi nor Polymarket had responded by publication.

What’s still allowed, and who regulates it

According to Agência Brasil, contracts on economic and financial benchmarks, such as price indices, interest rates, exchange rates and commodity prices, remain under CVM supervision, and the CVM is to issue complementary rules (art. 5), which hadn’t been located as of October 1, 2026.

The only authorized event contracts found in Brazil are those of B3, the Brazilian stock exchange, on the Ibovespa index, the dollar and bitcoin (from April 27, 2026) and on IPCA inflation and GDP (from June 29, 2026). According to B3, the CVM authorized them only for professional investors (more than R$10 million in financial assets or a CVM certification); none covers sports, elections or entertainment.

In March 2026, the Ministry of Finance’s Secretariat of Prizes and Betting (Secretaria de Prêmios e Apostas, SPA) said “there are no Brazilian companies formally authorised by the SPA to operate in this segment”, according to iGaming Business, and no SPA, CVM or Central Bank authorization for Kalshi or Polymarket was found.

The TSE and election betting

On September 17, 2024, the TSE unanimously made betting on candidates an “ilícito eleitoral” (electoral offense), which can be treated as abuse of economic power and illegal vote-buying, Agência Brasil reported. Whether its 2026 election rules repeat this couldn’t be confirmed, but CMN Resolution 5,298 bans election event contracts in Brazil either way.

How MP 1,394/2026 may apply

MP 1,394/2026, in force since September 25, 2026, prohibits “a exploração, a oferta, a intermediação e a publicidade” (the operation, offer, intermediation and advertising) of fixed-odds betting in Brazil, including by operators abroad (art. 1). It names sports bets and online games and doesn’t mention prediction markets.

But it defines a fixed-odds bet broadly, as staking an amount in the hope of a “prêmio cujo montante é definido por fator de multiplicação” (a prize whose size is set by a multiplication factor), without limiting it to sports or online games (art. 3, I). A binary event contract arguably fits. That is a reading of the text, not an official position.

The MP has force of law but needs Congress’s approval within 60 days, extendable by 60, and industry associations have asked the Supreme Federal Court (STF) to suspend it; no ruling had been reported as of October 1, 2026.

Kalshi and Brazil

Kalshi is a US exchange: KalshiEX LLC has been a designated contract market regulated by the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) since 2020. That isn’t a Brazilian authorization, and Kalshi was on the April 2026 block list. Its help center says its contracts “trade as financial derivatives based on events” and that users are responsible for making sure their use is lawful.

In the Member Agreement version posted on September 21, 2026, Brazil is not on Kalshi’s named list of restricted jurisdictions. But users must confirm they are not “located in any jurisdiction in which trading Event Contracts on the Platform is prohibited under Applicable Law or by Kalshi policy,” and CMN Resolution 5,298 prohibits trading sports, election, political and entertainment event contracts in Brazil.

As of October 1, 2026, Kalshi’s public market data showed a “Brazil Presidential election winner?” event with 14 candidate markets, first opened in January 2025.

Polymarket and Brazil

Since July 2026, Polymarket’s own documentation has restricted Brazil; as of October 1, 2026, it lists Brazil among “Regulatory-Restricted Jurisdictions (Close-Only on Frontend and API)”, where “users can close existing positions but cannot open new ones.”

In September 2026, the Ministry of Finance said Polymarket “está bloqueada no Brasil” (is blocked in Brazil), adding that each internet provider carries out the block and that, even where the page opens, bets and deposits aren’t possible. The Federal Attorney General’s Office (Advocacia-Geral da União, AGU) was studying action against Polymarket, according to the trade site BNL Data, citing JOTA. Polymarket lists a “Brazil Presidential Election” event, created on September 18, 2025.

Bills in Congress

Six bills (projetos de lei, PL) on prediction markets or election bets were pending as of October 1, 2026, and none had been voted on.

What this means for people in Brazil

As of October 1, 2026, there is no lawful way for people in Brazil to trade event contracts on sports, elections, politics or entertainment, on a Brazilian or a foreign platform. Using a VPN or similar tools to get around these restrictions doesn’t make trading lawful, and Polymarket’s terms expressly forbid it.

The rules mainly target operators, intermediaries, advertisers and payment providers. For individuals, Brazil’s misdemeanors law (Lei das Contravenções Penais, Decree-Law 3,688/1941) fines anyone “found participating” in a game of chance as a bettor, including online, R$2,000 to R$200,000 (art. 50, §2), and counts bets on sports competitions as games of chance. How it applies to event contracts hasn’t been settled, and no enforcement against individual users was found.

No Receita Federal guidance on prediction-market gains was found; whether Law 14,754/2023, which taxes residents’ income from financial investments abroad, would apply is an open question, so ask a tax adviser. Our guide to betting taxes in Brazil covers licensed fixed-odds bets only.

Still open: the CVM’s complementary rules, the bills above and the fate of MP 1,394; our timeline of Brazil’s betting laws tracks each step. If betting or trading is causing you problems, see where to get help for gambling problems in Brazil; CVV answers on 188, 24 hours a day.

The bottom line

As of October 1, 2026, event contracts on sports, elections, politics and entertainment are banned in Brazil, even when traded abroad, Kalshi’s and Polymarket’s sites have been ordered blocked, and no prediction market is authorized for retail users. SafeBet.ai doesn’t rank, review or link to betting or prediction-market platforms for Brazil. For context, read Brazil’s 2026 betting ban explained or browse all Brazil guides.