USA · Guides
Guides: prediction markets & online casinos in the USA
Everything you need to know before you trade an event contract or play at an online casino in the US — how it works, what’s legal where, what it costs and how to stay in control.
Prediction markets
Guide · 6 min
How prediction markets work A prediction market is an exchange where you buy and sell contracts on the outcome of a future event. Each contract pays $1 if the event happens and nothing if it doesn't, so its price — say 38¢ — works as the market's estimate of the probability. You trade with other people, not the house, and you can sell before the event is decided. Read Guide · 7 min
Are prediction markets legal in the US? Yes — prediction markets that list event contracts on a CFTC-regulated exchange are legal under federal law and available in most states. Sports contracts are the exception: as of September 30, 2026, federal appeals courts are split on whether states can ban them, several states block them, and the Supreme Court has been asked to decide. Read Guide · 5 min
Prediction markets vs sportsbooks A sportsbook sets the odds and takes the other side of your bet; a prediction market is an exchange where you trade contracts with other people and pay a fee. Prediction markets often have lower costs on popular markets and let you sell early, but sportsbooks are licensed by your state, while sports event contracts are still legally contested in many states. Read Guide · 6 min
Prediction market fees compared Most US prediction markets charge a trading fee per contract that peaks when the price is 50¢: about $1.75 per 100 contracts on Kalshi and OG, $1.74 on Polymarket US, $2.00 through Robinhood and $1.00 on Interactive Brokers' ForecastEx. Deposit and withdrawal fees can matter just as much, so compare the total cost for the way you'll fund your account. Read Guide · 4 min
How to read prediction market prices as odds A prediction market price in cents is the market's implied probability: a contract at 40¢ means roughly a 40% chance. To get decimal odds, divide 1 by the price (1 ÷ 0.40 = 2.50); in American odds a 40¢ price is +150 and a 60¢ price is -150. Trading fees and the bid-ask spread make the odds you actually get slightly worse. Read Methodology · 4 min
How we rank prediction markets We score every US prediction market from 0 to 10 on six weighted criteria — regulation and safety (25%), markets and features (20%), fees (20%), liquidity (15%), deposits and withdrawals (10%) and the app experience (10%). Only platforms that US residents can legally use through a CFTC-regulated exchange or broker are eligible. Read
Online casinos
Guide · 8 min
Where online casinos are legal in the US As of September 30, 2026, real-money online casinos are legal and operating in seven US states: New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Michigan, West Virginia, Delaware, Connecticut and Rhode Island. Maine legalized online casinos run by its four Wabanaki Nations in January 2026, but its rules are still in draft and no site has launched, and Nevada allows online poker only. To play, you must be 21 or older and physically inside one of the seven states. Read Guide · 8 min
Are online casinos safe? How to spot a licensed casino A state-licensed online casino is the safe way to play real-money casino games in the US: it must verify your age and identity, confirm you're in the state, use regulator-approved games, offer deposit limits and self-exclusion, and answer to a regulator you can complain to. Offshore casinos offer none of that, and Michigan's regulator warns they provide 'no consumer protections' and may not pay you. Before you deposit, find the casino's exact name and web address on your state regulator's official list. Read Guide · 5 min
Online casino bonuses explained A casino bonus is usually restricted money you must wager a set number of times before you can withdraw it. Its real value is roughly the bonus minus the expected loss on that wagering: a $100 bonus with a 15x requirement means $1,500 of play, which costs about $60 on average on a 96% slot — so it's worth about $40, not $100. Read Guide · 8 min
RTP and house edge explained RTP (return to player) is the share of all money wagered on a game that it pays back over the long run, and the house edge is the rest: RTP = 100% − house edge. Your expected loss is the total you wager multiplied by the house edge, so $1,000 of spins on a 96% RTP slot costs about $40 on average, while $1,000 of 9/6 Jacks or Better video poker played perfectly costs about $4.60. Read Guide · 8 min
Are sweepstakes casinos legal? A state-by-state guide Sweepstakes casinos are not licensed online casinos: they sell Gold Coins with no cash value and give away Sweeps Coins that can be redeemed for prizes, arguing that this 'no purchase necessary' model is a legal promotion rather than gambling. Twelve states enacted laws against them in 2025–26, and regulators and attorneys general in other states, including Florida, Illinois, Pennsylvania and Michigan, have ordered operators to stop or sued them. No state licenses sweepstakes casinos, so players don't get the protections of a regulated casino. Read Methodology · 4 min
How we rank online casinos We only rank real-money online casinos licensed by a US state gaming regulator. Each casino is scored from 0 to 10 on seven weighted criteria: licensing and safety (20%), game library (20%), welcome bonus value (15%), payouts and banking (15%), app and experience (15%), rewards (10%) and support and responsible gambling tools (5%). Read
Taxes, safety & more
Guide · 6 min
Gambling and prediction market taxes in the US All gambling winnings are taxable in the US. For 2026, casinos and sportsbooks issue a Form W-2G for slot wins of $2,000 or more and for sports wins of $2,000 or more at odds of 300-to-1 or longer, and itemizers can deduct only 90% of their gambling losses, capped at their winnings. How prediction market profits should be taxed is still unsettled. Read Guide · 5 min
Responsible gambling in the US: help, limits and self-exclusion If gambling is causing problems, call or text the National Problem Gambling Helpline at 1-800-MY-RESET (1-800-697-3738), available 24/7. Licensed online casinos in states such as New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Michigan and West Virginia must offer deposit and time limits, a break of at least 72 hours and self-exclusion, each online-casino state runs its own self-exclusion program, and prediction markets offer similar tools voluntarily. Read Guide · 6 min
Expected value (EV) explained Expected value (EV) is the average amount you win or lose per bet if you could repeat it many times: each outcome's probability times what it pays, added up. Casino games and standard sportsbook bets have negative EV because of the house edge and the vig; a bet or event contract only has positive EV when your true probability is higher than the price implies, after fees. Read Guide · 7 min
Prediction market, betting & casino glossary A plain-English glossary of the terms used on US prediction markets, sportsbooks and online casinos. Each definition stands on its own, with links to the guides that go deeper. Read